Nottingham Forest's statistical underperformance highlighted ahead of Brentford

Nottingham Forest's underlying metrics suggest they should be joint-third in the Premier League, but they sit 18th with just six points ahead of a key match at Brentford.

Nottingham Forest's significant statistical underperformance is the biggest in the Premier League, creating pressure ahead of Saturday's trip to Brentford. Oliver Glasner's side have just six points from eight games and sit 18th in the standings, a stark contrast to their expected points total of 13.9 which would place them joint-third.

Forest travel to the Gtech Community Stadium this weekend for a 3pm kick-off, looking to build on a 1-1 draw at Ipswich Town last Friday. That result ended a three-match losing streak, with Neco Williams opening the scoring in the 13th minute before Julio Enciso equalised for the hosts before half-time. The team registered 17 shots and 2.31 expected goals in that match but could not find a winner, a story that has defined their season.

The numbers behind the struggle

Advanced data reveals the scale of Forest's frustration. The gap between their expected points and their actual haul of six is a division-worst minus 7.9. Their expected goals total of 13.5 is also the highest in the league compared to the mere six they have actually scored, a deficit of 7.8. The team have missed 20 big chances this season, a figure only Bournemouth have exceeded. These metrics highlight an attacking inefficiency that has left them with just one league win so far.

Their recent form reads one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five outings. After the draw at Portman Road, their previous results were a 1-0 home loss to Arsenal and a 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace. They are 15 points behind leaders Manchester City and have conceded 10 goals while scoring only six.

A familiar foe awaits

Saturday's opponents Brentford, who sit sixth, also drew 1-1 last time out against Hull City. They have a Carabao Cup tie at Sunderland on Wednesday before returning to league action. The recent history between the sides offers Forest some encouragement; they won 2-0 at the Gtech in January this year and also recorded a 3-1 victory in August 2025. Brentford, however, won 2-0 at the City Ground in May 2025.

With two matches remaining before the next international break, the fixture at Brentford is viewed as critical for Forest to start turning promising performances into tangible results. The club's underlying data suggests the potential is there, but the team must now deliver under the pressure of the league table. Their next assignment is in west London on Saturday afternoon.